Table of Contents
Episode 396 – November 10, 2023
Listen On: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts
Guest Information
Andrew Lis
Andrew is an economist / data-scientist / consultant specializing in real estate and urban land economics, as well as topics relating to financial markets and derivatives trading, among other niche topics.
The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) welcomed economist Andrew Lis as the new Director of Economics and Data Analytics.
In a past-professional-life, Andrew worked as a mechanical and electrical draftsman & designer, and in a past-past-professional-life, he even worked as a (semi) professional musician & producer.
When not building something with data, Andrew can usually be found building or fixing something else, or traveling around in his aging 1985 Volkswagen van. [Or laying underneath it, fixing it].
Episode Summary
Thinking of Selling? Get Your Home SOLD FAST & for TOP DOLLAR.
Vancouver Real Estate 2024
Vancouver Real Estate Market Forecast 2024 / Vancouver housing market predictions 2024: A Detailed Look
Find a PDF of the REBGV Vancouver real estate predictions 2024 HERE.
Will Sales Volume increase in 2024?
Lis predicts stability for 2024, with sales volumes likely to mirror the 28,500 transactions seen in 2023 and maybe slightly higher.
This trend suggests a market finding its equilibrium & effectively more of the same for 2024 – a plodding along sales volume for Metro Vancouver that will nonetheless remain below the 10 year average for real estate transactions.
Will Vancouver real estate prices increase in 2024?
Similar to past guest, President & CEO of Royal Lepage Phil Soper who forecasts a 3% increase in Metro Vancouver house prices in 2024, Lis expects a modest growth range of 1-2% in the home price index and, therefore, home prices for 2024 for Metro Vancouver.
Lis’s analysis reflects a resilient marketplace but one not immune to external economic factors & susceptible to price shocks in the average price in home value in either direction.
Will interest rates decline in 2024?
Lis notes that changes in interest rates and broader economic conditions could significantly impact the market, either reinforcing current trends or leading to unexpected shifts, such as we saw this past spring where buyer demand picked up significantly with the Bank of Canada pause in its interest rate hikes & mortgage rates dropped on positive inflation news.
Higher interest rates, & higher fixed mortgage rates especially, should keep price appreciation muted but 2024 is still expected to be a growth year for pricing.
If interest rates drop (as most now believe will happen in the second quarter or third of 2024), and Canada does not face widescale unemployment from a deep recession, we could see much more market activity and higher price growth for home prices in 2024.
The price of money (both fixed & variable mortgage rates) will dictate sales activity, per cent of price growth or declines. As both 2022 $ 2023, interest rates will have an outsized impact on optimism overall in 2024.
Unlock Real-Time Market Report Data – Access Vancouver SOLD PRICES and In-Depth Market Insights Now!
Inventory: The Deciding Factor of Vancouver’s Real Estate Market
Andrew Lis differs from other experts we have had on the show in the critical factor for our real estate market.
Some analysts such as Moody’s Analytics Brendan LaCerda look at markets across Western Canada & beyond & point to unemployment as the key metric for price appreciation/depreciation. Others focus on local news in conjunction with larger national trends such as immigration data from Statistics Canada.
These external factors are all important for Lis but he argues that Metro Vancouver is not like Calgary or Nova Scotia or New Brunswick.
Metro Vancouver is in a chronic state of low inventory & therefore inventory levels (or active listings) are the #1 factor influencing Vancouver house prices.
For years, Metro Vancouver has hovered largely within the range of 10,000 to 12,000 listings. As of November 2023, Metro Vancouver inventory is at 10,277.
Lis points out that 15,000+ listings would be needed for a truly balanced real estate market.
Lis’s model shows a very strong correlation between low inventory and housing prices & price appreciation. The Vancouver market is currently in that low inventory band, somewhere between 10,000 to 12,000 listing. It will take a lot of new inventory with very little absorption to get us back to a truly balanced housing market let alone anything resembling a housing market crash
Our inventory level in this market is the lowest it’s been in the data going back to the early 1990s. It’s super, super low, we are rock bottom
The balance between supply and demand is vital in dictating market trends. Monitoring inventory levels is essential in predicting future pricing trends & home value.
Vancouver Inventory Levels
Want to keep up to date on Inventory Levels & Sales Ratios ahead of the Canadian Press?
Strategic Insights for Buyers and Sellers
Andrew Lis offers more than Vancouver housing market predictions 2024; he provides strategic advice for navigating Vancouver real estate 2024.
Without any large external economic shocks, Lis advises buyers and sellers to closely monitor inventory trends for optimal transaction timing. This is the most important indicator for pricing trends.
If inventory levels stay in that 10,000-12,000 range, opportunities for buyers will be limited and it will generally remain a seller’s market, even if sales ratios remain low.
At these inventory levels, it is a good moment to think of selling your property if you are looking for a quick sale for top dollar.
On the other hand, if looking for a buying opportunity, the higher the inventory the better. A truly balanced market is inventory levels close to 15,000 generally.
This of course depends on sub market and property type a buyer is looking for. We do provide monthly Sales Ratios that detail price bands, property types and sub markets free of charge. SIGN UP HERE.
(Please note the REBGV is a member of both the BC Real Estate Association & the Canadian Real Estate Association. The Metro Vancouver market Lis refers to throughout this interview, the REBGV, includes a number of sub markets including West Vancouver, North Vancouver, Vancouver West, Vancouver East, Richmond, Burnaby, New Westminster, the Tri-Cities, Pitt Meadows & Maple Ridge. )
Thinking of Making Moves in the Vancouver Real Estate Market?
Episode Host
Adam Scalena
Adam is a full-service realtor, specializing in Vancouver’s best areas. His systematic approach to real estate and dedication to his clients has consistently placed him within the top 10% of realtors operating within Greater Vancouver.
Matt Scalena
Matt is real estate obsessed and considers himself a lifelong student of the Vancouver real estate market. As a co-manager of the Scalena Real Estate team, Matt prides himself on expertly advising buyers and sellers on all aspects of the fast-paced, dynamic Vancouver real estate market. He is present at every stage of the process, from that first phone call or email right through to when keys are exchanged between sellers and buyers.
Sponsors
