Episode 30

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Updated by Matt Scalena PREC February 15, 2024

Monitor ANY real estate market in BC with Realtor-level Data & SOLD PRICES in Real Time.

For an updated list, see Best Place to Invest in Real Estate in B.C. 2024 & Beyond & Top 5 Real Estate Investment Markets BC 2023.

This week we are going to share the top 5 markets for where to buy real estate in BC in 2022! Rod and Cory break down why these cities made the British Columbia real estate top 5 list and what asset class to watch out for in these markets. You may also be surprised what cities didn’t make the list this year. Not to say those cities are bad investments…they just don’t offer the same upside for where to buy real estate in BC in the short-to-medium term as the VCREP Top 5. Whether you’re a novice investor or you have a large portfolio, this is a must listen-to episode if you are looking for the best real estate investment Vancouver & BC have to offer!

Guest Information

Rod MacKay

roderick@williamwright.ca

604-763-5510

Rod Mackay, a commercial broker from William Wright Commercial Real Estate Services in Vancouver.

Episode Summary

Thinking of selling a BC property? Our Proven Strategies Work!

The Best Place to Invest in Real Estate in B.C.?

 

Here are the top 5 real estate investment markets for BC Real Estate in 2022:

 

  1. Victoria
  2. Maple Ridge
  3. Kelowna
  4. Chilliwack
  5. Kamloops

 

5. Kamloops, British Columbia

Why is Kamloops a good place to invest for BC real estate?

  • The Trans Mountain Pipeline is coming through, which will bring more business to the city.
  • Kamloops has always been a transportation hub and they market themselves as the tournament centre of Canada.
  • Sectors that are growing in Kamloops include healthcare, development, construction and education. All of these sectors will help stabilize and grow the Kamloops market.

Compared to Kelowna, Kamloops hasn’t had a burst yet. But that doesn’t mean Kamloop’s future is not bright. Over the next decade, we expect cap rates will compress and more British Columbians will be moving into Kamloops as they get priced out of Kelowna. With commercial real estate, population growth must happen first in the residential property market and then commercial follows.

Where in Kamloops should people invest? What commercial real estate asset classes should we be buying in Kamloops?

We like the downtown Kamloops market on the retail level or in multi-family. Industrial in any market is strong across the province and beyond so we don’t have to focus on that asset class.

What are the cap rates like in downtown Kamloops? Where are lease rates headed in Kamloops?

The market had swung away from downtown Kamloops but now it’s coming back with a lot of development and excitement. We’re seeing cap rates in the 5% range in Kamloops – and they were in the 6% range only a couple of years ago. As cap rates go down, prices go up. As the population grows, you’ll see greater demand for retail, which will push retail lease rates up. If I’m buying something at a 5% cap rate with a $30/foot lease rate, I would bet that in 5-10 years you may see 4% cap rates with a $40/foot lease rate.

Of interest: How do interest rate increases & a higher mortgage rate impact cap rates?

What are the downsides to investing in Kamloops? Kamloops vs Vancouver: where should investors be directing their resources?

Compared to Vancouver, you’re going to have a slower lease up for a rental property in Kamloops. You may have to offer more incentives to lock in tenants. But imagine if you had invested in Yaletown in the 1990s. There would have been some fluctuation at the time but, if you are still holding it in 2021, you’re doing very well. There’s a great opportunity in Kamloops right now as demand alongside growth in the city continues.

Monitor ANY real estate market in BC with Realtor-level Data & SOLD PRICES in real time.

4. Chilliwack, British Columbia

What type of properties should investors look at Chilliwack?

You can’t go wrong investing in retail, multi-family or industrial commercial real estate in Chilliwack. Chilliwack is not an office market, but all of the other commercial asset classes are strong going into 2022.

What is happening in industrial development in Chilliwack?

There is a ton of industrial development in Chilliwack and absorption has picked up considerably. A lot of businesses struggle to get into Vancouver from further North or from Alberta. Many of those businesses are looking to reposition and relocate to Chilliwack to cut down on their delivery times as a cost-effective option.

Why is Chilliwack one of our best places to invest in Real Estate in B.C.?

With Covid, more British Colombian families have moved to Chilliwack to get more land for themselves and their families. Chilliwack is one of the hottest residential real estate markets. On the commercial side, we’re now seeing vacancy rates going down, lease rates going up, and many more clients interested in buying rental property in Chilliwack.

Cap rates for property in Chilliwack are coming down dramatically. When the Molson-Coors plant moved to Chilliwack, it started an industrial revolution.

Chilliwack has come a long way but there are still great growth opportunities to get in now at a good price.

Thinking of selling a BC property? Our Proven Strategies Work!

3. Kelowna, British Columbia

Is now the right time to buy real estate in Kelowna?

Kelowna has seen a lot of run up but there’s still a lot of opportunity in that marketplace. A lot of condo projects from the early 2010s didn’t launch or launched very poorly. Fast forward to 2021 and a lot of people are moving their primary residence into secondary markets, like Kelowna. It used to only be a city for recreational homes and Alberta oil money but that is most definitely no longer the case.

Some people think we’ve missed the boat on Kelowna. You probably won’t see the same overnight success as you might in other markets. But Kelowna is a market that is still growing. There are attractive cap rates, higher lease rates, and the ability to build equity through mortgage paydown. It is a small market, so it will be harder to get in as cap rates compress and lease rates go up.

What makes Kelowna one of our best places to invest in real estate in B.C.?

Monitor ANY real estate market in BC with Realtor-level Data & SOLD PRICES in real time.

What are the cap rates and lease rates like in Kelowna?

Multi-family is seeing under 4% cap rates. The lease rates downtown are continuing to climb. Industrial is selling out at higher and higher rates. We’re also seeing more companies look at Kelowna as their secondary market.

What is the future of Kelowna real estate?

Is there a Kelowna real estate bubble? For all the condos that were sold and are now being built, were they sold to speculators or investors? Are those buyers looking to rent or looking to sell? If Kelowna sees a huge inventory of condos dropped on the rental market, or the resale market, can it handle that?

How is Kelowna real estate different from Vancouver real estate?

Kelowna has similar challenges to Vancouver in that they are landlocked with the mountains and Lake Okanagan surrounding them. I don’t think we’ll see the same run-up on lease rates in Kelowna as we saw in Vancouver. Shockingly, the price of industrial real estate is almost the same in Kelowna as it is in Vancouver.

How do the BC wildfires affect the Kelowna real estate market?

Investors have a very short-term memory. Only a few weeks after the wildfire season ended, large projects in Kelowna were selling out.

Update from September 2023: how fire season will impact Kelowna real estate?

Monitor ANY real estate market in BC with Realtor-level Data & SOLD PRICES in real time.

2. Maple Ridge, Greater Vancouver, British Columbia

Why invest in Maple Ridge?

Commercial lags behind population growth. As Maple Ridge continues to grow, demand for commercial real estate will follow and follow quickly.

A lot of people think they’ve missed the boat on Maple Ridge on the residential real estate side, but there’s still an opportunity to get in with commercial real estate.

What are cap rates like in real estate in Maple Ridge?

Cap rates are getting towards 4% in Maple Ridge. We’re seeing a lot of activity, high demand, and multiple, subject-free offers over asking.

Where should we invest in Maple Ridge?

We like the 224th and 227th corridor in downtown Maple Ridge. Downtown Maple Ridge is where your best investment is, whether it be retail or multi-family. Again, industrial anywhere is doing great. The downtown area of Maple Ridge is going through a major transformation. Getting in now as downtown Maple Ridge expands is a great opportunity.

Monitor ANY real estate market in BC with Realtor-level Data & SOLD PRICES in real time.

1. Victoria, British Columbia – Victoria BC Investment Opportunities

Why invest in real estate in Victoria, BC?

We are huge fans of Victoria, BC when thinking of all of BC real estate & have spoken to many Victoria Insiders on the show, including the Mayor of Victoria Lisa Helps & Large-Scale Developer in the city Byron Chard of Chard Developments.

Victoria is anchored by government tenancies. Coming out of Covid, or in any economic environment, having resilient tenants like Victoria has is crucial.

But that is not all to consider when thinking of Victoria BC investment opportunities:

  • Victoria has seen a huge run-up of population growth throughout the pandemic.
  • This marketplace has education, real estate, tourism, government, technology, an international airport, and more.
  • Greater Victoria markets, like Langford and Sannich, are growing very quickly. Pricing has taken off in Victoria and the sell-through of condos is 2-3x what it was a few years ago.

What are the challenges to Victoria’s real estate market?

The housing market may pose the biggest challenge which almost always bodes well for Victoria BC investment opportunities. Downtown Victoria has a lot of historic buildings that are set to be preserved, which pushes development outside of the downtown core. People are coming to Victoria for school or work but the housing supply is shrinking dramatically & home prices have increased dramatically. Students who used to leave after graduation are now staying and settling down with families, creating more of a housing crunch.

Does Victoria become a place like Vancouver where people get priced out? Where do people move to if they can’t afford to live in Greater Victoria?

Victoria will also have to deal with infrastructure issues. How will they move all of these people around? Regardless of its challenges, Victoria is still the best marketplace for investment affordability, vacancy, absorption and cap rates.

Monitor ANY real estate market in BC with Realtor-level Data & SOLD PRICES in real time.

What real estate asset class should you invest in Victoria?

All asset classes offer interesting Victoria BC investment opportunities. In multi-family, you were seeing 5% caps just a few years ago and now we’re seeing cap rates in the 3% range. People are graduating from UVic but they’re not leaving Victoria. The companies and infrastructure are in Victoria now so people aren’t having to leave to find jobs. This will put more pressure on commercial real estate, whether that be retail, industrial or office space.

What is development like in Victoria?

In the Greater Victoria marketplace, only a handful of towers are launched per year – we have detailed some of these, like Langford Towers – whereas you’d see that many launch in the Lower Mainland in just a few months. There’s not a lot of supply coming to market and absorption is higher than what it once was. Population growth through immigration and repositioning is increasing rapidly.

Should we invest in real estate in Kelowna or Victoria?

Kelowna can feel more like a municipality pretending to be a city. Victoria is a city. It has a lot of challenges, but from an investment standpoint, demand is growing and there’s still massive opportunities. Lease rates will continue to go up and cap rates should continue to go down. It’s a marketplace you want to get in now. A lot of money was made by the people who got in 24 months ago and there’s still a lot of real estate opportunities in Victoria.

How is the industrial real estate market in Victoria?

Industrial is a great investment but the future of industrial real estate in Victoria is uncertain. There are about 400,000 people in Greater Victoria (according to Statistics Canada) and growing. There are currently 1.5-2.5 million square feet of industrial space coming into that area in the next decade, with a large chunk coming in the next 36 months. Is that too much for a small market? Is this one of the best Victoria BC investment opportunities? Right now absorption is great but is that just due to pent up demand? Or will demand continue to stay high? Industrial real estate in Victoria isn’t a bad investment but there is a bit of a question mark on it at this point.

A lot of people think if they move their business to Victoria, it will be cheaper. But Victoria is seeing lease rates of $18-20, which is what we’re seeing in Vancouver. Greater Victoria has the lowest vacancy rate in industrial space across North America at 0.1%. It’s a landlord’s market for now but does that change in 24-36 months? Do rising interest rates change the demand? The saving grace may be the aspiring property owner who realizes it’s cheaper to own than rent.

What are some other great cities to invest in commercial real estate in BC?

Surrey is an absolute must for commercial real estate investment. Surrey has had some great run up recently with many new developments. Cap rates have come down, so you may not get the same short term returns as you would in other growth markets. That’s why it’s not in our top five, but Surrey is still a great place to invest in commercial real estate.

Nanaimo is another good place to invest in commercial real estate with strong rental income. With the housing crunch in Victoria, a lot of people are going to end up in Nanaimo. Multi-family has gone from a 5 cap rate to sub 4 in some cases. Nanaimo will likely make our list next year.

Mission is another commercial real estate market we like. The housing market in Mission has grown a lot through covid as people continue to look for more space, and more bang for their buck. That area is going to see a lot of transformation in the commercial real estate world in the next few years.

What advice do you have for someone looking to invest in commercial real estate?

Find a commercial broker, a real estate professional & a member of the Canadian Real Estate Association, who works in the specific area you’re looking to invest in and they can advise on the best asset classes, the best deals, and a good property management company. We know a bunch so get in touch!

Thinking of selling a BC property? Our Proven Strategies Work!

Episode Host

Cory Wright

cory@williamwright.ca

Cory is the founder and Managing Broker of William Wright Commercial. Since its inception in 2013, he has successfully closed over $500,000,000 in commercial investment properties ranging from large-scale open-air shopping centers to highly desirable Vancouver development sites and everything in between.

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