Vancouver Buyer Drought Can't Be Pinned on Trump Tariff with Andrew Lis

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The Vancouver real estate market has once again defied expectations – this time to the downside, with March sales plummeting 36.8% below the 10-year average despite lower interest rates & inventory at healthy levels. Tariff uncertainty has hit the market hard…Or has it?

Director of Economics and Data Analytics at Greater Vancouver Realtors Andrew Lis sits down with Adam & Matt to examine whether Trump’s tariffs truly explain the puzzling absence of buyers despite favorable buying conditions. Spoiler: Lis doesn’t think so. From overregulation fatigue to shifting demographics, this conversation explores the deeper forces potentially reshaping Vancouver’s housing psychology.

Has the shine permanently faded from Vancouver real estate after years of policy intervention? Why are sellers steadily entering the market while buyers remain mysteriously sidelined? And what economic trigger might finally unleash the substantial pent-up demand Andrew believes is quietly building behind the scenes? Don’t miss this revealing analysis of what’s really driving Vancouver’s 2025 market dynamics!

Why the Vancouver Real Estate Market Is Slowing in 2025 (And What Happens Next)

Metro Vancouver’s housing market in 2025 is off to a slower-than-expected start — with home sales falling 36.8% below the 10-year average in March. In this episode of the Vancouver Real Estate Podcast, we talk with Andrew Lis, Director of Economics at Greater Vancouver Realtors, to understand what’s driving the real estate slowdown — and where the market is headed next.

Metro Vancouver Real Estate Sales Slump in Early 2025: What It Means for Buyers

The year started with optimism. In late 2024, sales were trending up, and expectations for Q1 2025 included 10–12% growth in sales and a 3–4% rise in prices. But as of March, that forecast hasn’t materialized.

Interest rates are relatively stable: fixed mortgages hover around 5%, with variables closer to 4.3%. Inventory is up, providing options for both buyers and sellers. Still, sales remain low.

This disconnect between expectations and activity signals something deeper than rates alone.

Are Tariffs and Uncertainty to Blame for the Housing Market Slowdown?

Andrew Lis is skeptical that tariffs are the culprit. He recently tested this idea using an “uncertainty index” — a dataset based on media coverage of economic volatility. The correlation with Vancouver home sales? Weak at best.

Even more telling: similar patterns are emerging in the U.S. and Australia. These markets, largely untouched by Canada-U.S. tariff disputes, are seeing the same slowdowns. That suggests a more global shift is at play.

In short, uncertainty may be part of the story, but it’s not the whole picture.

Buyer Hesitation, Inventory Growth & a Market Disconnected

One of the biggest surprises in Q1 2025 is the surge in listings. Inventory in Metro Vancouver sits around 15,000 — a level Lis calls “healthy.”

Sellers are active. Buyers? Not so much. This gap points to a broader psychological shift. Real estate no longer feels like a high-stakes sport. It feels like paperwork. Policy changes, including the BC flipping tax and speculation tax, have added friction.

Many buyers seem to be waiting for a catalyst — a trigger event that brings confidence back.